Back to Hand Lab

Draw strength · Hand Lab

Can a combo draw be ahead of an overpair?

Enumerate every turn and river for a straight-flush draw against pocket aces.

Let's poker Research DeskPublished 2026-08-31Verified 2026-08-31

01

Fixed setup

Is the made overpair still the mathematical favorite on this flop?

Hero cards

Opponent cards

Current board

Exact result

56.26%

Hero showdown equity

Wins
1114
56.26%
Ties
0
0%
Losses
866
43.74%

1,980 legal ordered runouts were enumerated; ties contribute half the pot to each player's equity.

02

Hero final-hand distribution

Flush27.58%
One pair24.14%
Straight19.7%
High card10.61%
Straight flush8.79%
Two pair7.88%
Trips1.31%

03

Next-card sensitivity

Each row fixes the next card, then enumerates every remaining river. Values explain board changes; they are not betting advice.

Strongest

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

Weakest

29.55%
29.55%
29.55%
31.82%
31.82%

04

How to interpret the result

Made hand versus draw is not the same as favorite versus underdog. Overlapping straight, flush, pair, and straight-flush routes must be counted together without double-counting cards.

The hero can win through a straight, a flush, a straight flush, or by pairing twice. Some apparent outs overlap, so adding separate draw percentages would exaggerate the result.

Pocket aces also retain redraws when the board pairs or the runout blocks one of the hero routes. Exact enumeration keeps both sides of that dependency visible.

Calculation boundary

This study fixes both known hands. It does not infer ranges, fold equity, bet sizes, position, or future action. The program removes known cards from a standard 52-card deck, enumerates every legal community-card runout, and compares final five-card hands with the practice-table evaluator. Build tests recalculate the source data.

Practice chips are for simulation and training only. They have no cash value and cannot be purchased, redeemed, transferred, gifted, or settled offline.